Today, Kasich Chooses Our President

Remember that time John Kasich chose the President of the United States?  Oh wait, that’s this year.  This week, to be precise.  If Kasich stays in the race, it will be because he endorses Trump and accepts whatever Trump is offering him this morning.  If Kasich leaves this week, it will be because he endorses Cruz and accepts what hopefully will be a VP offer from Cruz this morning.  

If you place these last three GOP candidates on a continuum of reasonableness, Trump would be on one end and Kasich on the other.  It may surprise you to think that Cruz may actually be grateful for Trump’s candidacy, as Trump makes Cruz seem much safer than many thought him just a few short months ago.  Cruz looks like your favorite uncle next to Trump.  Should Kasich bow out this week, his supporters are much more likely to join the Cruz camp than the Trump camp.  

Even after Kasich’s impressive win in Ohio, he can’t believe he has a realistic shot at the nomination.  Had Kasich also won Illinois, that would be something else entirely.  Kasich’s loss in Illinois highlights the limit to his “midwestern appeal,” making it unlikely he’ll repeat his Ohio success in the few remaining contests that are proximate to his home state (Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania).  Had Kasich won Illinois in addition to Ohio, he would have had an argument for staying in the race in his own right.  But that ship has sailed.  Make no mistake, from today on, Kasich is only in the race if he wants Trump to win.  

Trump is a lot of things, most of them bad, but he isn’t stupid.  Naming Kasich as his running mate gives Trump much needed integrity, experience, knowledge, appeal and on and on.  Kasich also just demonstrated how popular he is in Ohio, a major swing state.  This fact was not lost on Trump or Cruz.  Perhaps no one in history nailed a VP audition quite like Kasich did in Ohio last night.  A Kasich VP nod makes a lot of sense for both Trump and Cruz, and no doubt they are both wooing him more this week than they are Utah and Arizona voters, who are on deck.  

If Cruz can convince Kasich to bow out now, Cruz has a strong chance at the nomination.  He is about to benefit from the “Mormon Firewall,” with Utah and Arizona voting next Tuesday.  Both states boast high numbers of Mormon voters.  Trump lost Idaho largely because Idaho is predominantly Mormon and Mormon voters are admirably immune to Trump’s opportunistic overtures.  If Kasich suspends his candidacy, Cruz is likely to absorb almost all of the Rubio/Kasich supporters in Utah and Arizona and add them to the anti-Trump voters and hardcore conservatives he already has.  A Cruz landslide next Tuesday would change the whole tenor of the GOP nomination, supporting the notion that the anti-Trumps outnumber the Trumps, and permanently eroding any air of inevitability Trump has staked.  

The combination of Kasich withdrawing and the Mormon Firewall could spell the end of Trump’s candidacy.  Of course, Kasich has to play along.  This article assumes that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and that the Republican nominee will beat her.  It’s hard to imagine any woman voting for Trump; nevertheless, he enjoys broad swaths of appeal across both parties.  In the end, I predict Trump would narrowly beat Hillary if only because he owns his mud while she ignores hers.  Cruz would beat Clinton because of Hillary’s high unfavorables, Cruz’ debate skills, and the prolonged Benghazi and email server scandals.  In debates, Cruz is relentlessly reasonable, and Hillary will be forced to address both her scandals and her many reversals over and over again.  Hillary will have nowhere to hide.  If Trump wins the nomination, it would be a very close general election.  If Cruz wins the nomination, he will trounce Hillary.

So, John Kasich...who do you want to be President?

Stop Saying Trump Supporters are Stupid!

Many Republicans are terrified that Trump will win the nomination, and blame it on the stupidity of their fellow party members. But calling Trump supporters stupid does not help. Accusing them of falling for Trump’s manipulation is not productive. Many Trump supporters see all the same things you and I see, they just believe they are in on the joke. Whose joke exactly? Trump’s.

When I was at Duke Law School a decade ago, we had class officer elections just like everyone else. One of my peers ran a wild, entertaining campaign. His tag line was, “I promise to take the position seriously, but not the election.” His methods resonated with a lot of my classmates, but eventually he lost to a more “establishment” candidate. The difference between him and Trump was that this friend of mine had no prior history with any of us, no track record of success, real or imagined. Perhaps the result would have been different if we had come into law school already knowing about him and his history. Many Trump supporters believe that Trump’s "wealth" gives him a track record of success that allows them to believe he will take the position seriously, if not the election. Trump's real wealth is certainly up for debate, but let's ignore that for now.

Trump supporters are not uninformed voters. We can argue all day about the quality of the sources of their information, but the fact is they are consuming a lot of information, and much of it is the same as you and I. So why aren’t they reacting negatively to Trump’s wild behavior? Frankly, they don’t buy it. They don’t think Trump actually believes the things he says, but instead believe that he is systematically duping the media and the country generally. Most Trump supporters secretly believe they are in on this grand joke, and they revere Trump not for his platform or opinion, but for his ability to rise above the system and turn it on its head. "Isn’t that what Washington needs?", they say. "Someone who can analyze the bureaucratic labyrinth and figure out an end around? A “Trump” move?" Trump supporters truly see him as a master of satire who refuses to play by the tired, worn out rules of the game, and “just win baby.”

To make it clear, this is the primary source of Trump’s support: if he can manipulate the election process better than anyone else for his own benefit, can’t he do the same to Congress?
Yes, this reasoning is probably beyond the understanding of some of Trump’s supporters, but I believe that number is smaller than most people think. The political elite are notorious for not giving the American public enough credit for political savviness, and this election is case and point. Are some of Trump’s supporters deluded? Of course, but most Trump supporters see Trump as brilliantly manipulating the sheep of the party to achieve his own ends. In the end, “What good is a reasonable candidate who can’t win the nomination?” If unreasonableness is necessary to win the nomination, then unreasonableness is what it takes, right? There’s time enough for reasonableness when you’re in office. And, in fact most of Trump’s supporters believe he will be reasonable in office. Why? Because of the very reason many decry Trump: his ego. His supporters are not blind to his ego, they rely on it. They don’t ignore his insecurities, they depend upon them. Trump supporters know he wants to be considered the best and they believe his ego will keep him close enough to the center so as not to drive the country into the ground.

“But what about Trump’s racist rants!” you ask? "How can these so-called reasonable, smart Trump supporters tolerate his racist rants?" They don’t tolerate them, they simply don’t believe them. Trump supporters aren’t buying his racism for three reasons, (1) they don’t believe Trump is truly racist because there is little prior history of racism and no anecdotal evidence from ex-employees supporting a racist Trump; and (2) they believe Trump’s anti-everything rhetoric is just a tool to control the right-est 15% of the GOP and get them to vote for him; and (3) they are tired of “Gotcha” politics and don’t believe any candidate’s true feelings are as pure as the driven snow anyway. Point number three is especially true, as Trump supporters are reacting to a long history of establishment candidates not truly saying what they feel or believe. They are reacting to the Kabuki dance done by every Supreme Court nominee on abortion. They believe Trump basically says exactly what he thinks, but just dials it up a notch on racism to beckon the nationalistic section of the electorate. Once again, Trump supporters believe he is just gaming the system and not actually racist.

This may seem far fetched, but it is in fact the only reasonable explanation for Trump’s support. And, if you accept it as true, or even as possibly true, that means you can see what is compelling about Trump’s campaign. His slogan should be, “I turned the election on its head, and I can do the same to Congress.” To many people, that is extremely attractive.

But, this blog post is not intended to convince anyone to vote for Trump, but rather an intervention. This is an intervention meant to validate Trump supporters while at the same time convince them to walk away. There is a weakness to Trump that I believe is fatal, that “Trumps” everything he has done in business and everything he has done in the election process.

A great man once said, “No success can compensate for failure in the home.” Right now, at least until the convention, the GOP has staked a claim to the moral high ground. We don’t have the Clintons, the Anthony Wieners, the Eliot Spitzers. Sure, there is the occasional GOP deviant, but for the most part we don’t continue to revere them once they have fallen from grace. If we Republicans nominate Donald Trump here and now, we forsake the moral high ground forever.

In my Constitutional Law class a decade ago, we were discussing the advent of gay marriage. I made the comment in class one day that heterosexuals were to blame for gay marriage. The high divorce rate and high level of infidelity eroded heterosexuals’ ability to claim the moral high ground. In class, I said, “homosexuals look at people like Donald Trump and say, ‘you’re calling me deviant?!” I cannot even fathom that this man is now on the precipice of the GOP nomination. Laurence Tribe, Harvard Law Professor and liberal emperor, once said that the American public puts too much emphasis on the private lives of their public servants. I disagree.

So, Trump supporters, are you willing to cede the moral high ground forever? Three marriages, “a different woman every night”, the owner of the Miss American pageant? Is this the man we hold up as a symbol to our children? Do you honestly believe Trump can earn broad support from women voters during the general election? Does he deserve such support? Surely he does not. Sure, Reagan had an early divorce, but he was with Nancy forever and all indications point to him being good to her. For all of George W. Bush’s failings, he loved Laura and she stuck with him. For many voters, Laura’s was the most important endorsement of all. Even Barack Obama’s marriage is a benefit to our country. I don’t agree with most of his policies, but it’s clear that even though their marriage isn’t perfect, they work on it together. We can all relate to that. The Obama’s commitment to their marriage is good for our country. I wouldn’t vote for Obama just because he is a family man, but I will withhold my vote from Trump because he is not. No success can compensate for failure in the home.

Trump never has been and never will be a family man. And that, my fellow Republicans, is no joke.