Remember that time John Kasich chose the President of the United States? Oh wait, that’s this year. This week, to be precise. If Kasich stays in the race, it will be because he endorses Trump and accepts whatever Trump is offering him this morning. If Kasich leaves this week, it will be because he endorses Cruz and accepts what hopefully will be a VP offer from Cruz this morning.
If you place these last three GOP candidates on a continuum of reasonableness, Trump would be on one end and Kasich on the other. It may surprise you to think that Cruz may actually be grateful for Trump’s candidacy, as Trump makes Cruz seem much safer than many thought him just a few short months ago. Cruz looks like your favorite uncle next to Trump. Should Kasich bow out this week, his supporters are much more likely to join the Cruz camp than the Trump camp.
Even after Kasich’s impressive win in Ohio, he can’t believe he has a realistic shot at the nomination. Had Kasich also won Illinois, that would be something else entirely. Kasich’s loss in Illinois highlights the limit to his “midwestern appeal,” making it unlikely he’ll repeat his Ohio success in the few remaining contests that are proximate to his home state (Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania). Had Kasich won Illinois in addition to Ohio, he would have had an argument for staying in the race in his own right. But that ship has sailed. Make no mistake, from today on, Kasich is only in the race if he wants Trump to win.
Trump is a lot of things, most of them bad, but he isn’t stupid. Naming Kasich as his running mate gives Trump much needed integrity, experience, knowledge, appeal and on and on. Kasich also just demonstrated how popular he is in Ohio, a major swing state. This fact was not lost on Trump or Cruz. Perhaps no one in history nailed a VP audition quite like Kasich did in Ohio last night. A Kasich VP nod makes a lot of sense for both Trump and Cruz, and no doubt they are both wooing him more this week than they are Utah and Arizona voters, who are on deck.
If Cruz can convince Kasich to bow out now, Cruz has a strong chance at the nomination. He is about to benefit from the “Mormon Firewall,” with Utah and Arizona voting next Tuesday. Both states boast high numbers of Mormon voters. Trump lost Idaho largely because Idaho is predominantly Mormon and Mormon voters are admirably immune to Trump’s opportunistic overtures. If Kasich suspends his candidacy, Cruz is likely to absorb almost all of the Rubio/Kasich supporters in Utah and Arizona and add them to the anti-Trump voters and hardcore conservatives he already has. A Cruz landslide next Tuesday would change the whole tenor of the GOP nomination, supporting the notion that the anti-Trumps outnumber the Trumps, and permanently eroding any air of inevitability Trump has staked.
The combination of Kasich withdrawing and the Mormon Firewall could spell the end of Trump’s candidacy. Of course, Kasich has to play along. This article assumes that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and that the Republican nominee will beat her. It’s hard to imagine any woman voting for Trump; nevertheless, he enjoys broad swaths of appeal across both parties. In the end, I predict Trump would narrowly beat Hillary if only because he owns his mud while she ignores hers. Cruz would beat Clinton because of Hillary’s high unfavorables, Cruz’ debate skills, and the prolonged Benghazi and email server scandals. In debates, Cruz is relentlessly reasonable, and Hillary will be forced to address both her scandals and her many reversals over and over again. Hillary will have nowhere to hide. If Trump wins the nomination, it would be a very close general election. If Cruz wins the nomination, he will trounce Hillary.
So, John Kasich...who do you want to be President?
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